
Michael Ighodaro, Executive Director of Global Black Gay Men Connect (GBGMC), presenting the oral abstract “Global Forecast of Long-Acting PrEP Need for Key Populations (2025–2030)” during AIDS 2026 in Rio de Janeiro.
Global Black Gay Men Connect (GBGMC) presented the oral abstract Global Forecast of Long-Acting PrEP Need for Key Populations (2025–2030) at the 26th International AIDS Conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (AIDS 2026). Presented by Executive Director Michael Ighodaro during the session “Advancing HIV Prevention Science and Access,” the presentation highlighted projected demand for PrEP among key populations and the potential role of long-acting HIV prevention options in meeting that need.
The analysis, developed by AVAC, Avenir Health and GBGMC, projects that key populations will require 11.5 million person-years of PrEP annually by 2030. Men who have sex with men account for the largest projected need at 7.8 million person-years, followed by female sex workers (1.8 million), people who inject drugs (1.2 million) and transgender women (0.7 million).
The presentation also examined how different PrEP products could contribute to meeting this demand under a long-acting-dominant scenario. Of the projected 11.5 million person-years of PrEP, 4.1 million would come from daily oral PrEP, 3.0 million from cabotegravir (CAB), 2.4 million from lenacapavir (LEN) and 2.1 million from monthly oral PrEP.

The slide breaks the total need by product under a long-acting dominant scenario
Overall, long-acting methods, cabotegravir and lenacapavir, are projected to represent between 2.2 million and 7.4 million person-years of PrEP annually by 2030, or 20–60% of total need, depending on the method-mix scenario. The analysis illustrates how product choice, delivery systems and community demand could influence the uptake of long-acting HIV prevention.
Speaking during the session, Ighodaro emphasised the importance of ensuring that scientific advances translate into access for the communities most affected by HIV.
“These numbers are not abstract. They represent millions of gay and bisexual men, transgender women, sex workers, and people who use drugs who will continue to be left behind unless we match scientific innovation with political will, funding, and community-led delivery. Long-acting PrEP will only end HIV if it reaches the people who need it most.” — Michael Ighodaro, Executive Director, GBGMC
While the forecast has been published previously, its presentation at AIDS 2026 highlighted its value in informing procurement planning, donor alignment and national HIV prevention strategies as countries prepare to expand access to long-acting PrEP.
GBGMC is already using the findings through its PrEP Power initiative and country-level EQUAL-PrEP work to support the introduction of cabotegravir and lenacapavir, strengthen access to oral PrEP options, and promote meaningful community engagement in programme design and delivery.
AIDS 2026 continues through 31 July in Rio de Janeiro under the theme “Rethink. Rebuild. Rise.”
About Global Black Gay Men Connect (GBGMC)
Global Black Gay Men Connect (GBGMC) is a global movement building the power of Black gay men and other key populations to secure health, human rights and economic opportunity. Through advocacy, research partnerships and community-led programming, GBGMC works to ensure that HIV prevention tools reach those most affected by HIV.











































